![]() ![]() “We need to reorient our thinking to a changing future,” Norgaard said. With human influence such a dominant force on the climate and environment, a revised approach is necessary, the scientists argue. It challenges assumptions surrounding the study of a natural environment that is simply “out there” and unchanging, said former Science Board member Richard Norgaard, professor emeritus with the Energy and Resources Group at the University of California, Berkeley. The paper is framed around the ideas of how the Delta responds to rapid changes, or “disturbances,” and the effects on species. Without a concerted effort, science and management may be overtaken by the rapidity of changes and find themselves constantly reacting rather than getting ahead of the changes.” “The need for strategic initiatives is urgent. “We cannot assume that traditional management approaches will be sufficient to deal with the surprises that lie in store,” the paper says. ![]() “Faced with these challenges, science and management must adapt and change, anticipating what the systems may be like in the future.”Īs a result, a business-as-usual approach will not be appropriate. “The accelerating speed of change means that ecological systems may not hold still long enough for scientists to understand them, much less use their findings to inform management,” the report says. The Science Board’s paper, Preparing for a Fast-forward Future in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, argues that climate change is pushing rapid environmental change, with droughts, heat waves, forest fires and floods becoming more frequent and more extreme. The paper has been submitted for publication in the journal San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science. The tensions surrounding whether science and management can keep pace with the changes in the Delta were highlighted in a paper prepared by the Delta Independent Science Board, which evaluates science programs that support adaptive management of the Delta. (Source: California Department of Water Resources) Challenging assumptions Recent trawling surveys have been unable to find any of this species in the wild. Found only in the Delta estuary, the Delta smelt is an indicator species that demonstrates the health of the ecosystem. There is also the need to acknowledge the Delta’s sense of place and unique cultural value. These challenges frustrate water supply management and attempts to “fix” the health of the West Coast’s largest freshwater tidal estuary.ĭeclining estuary health could impair the ability of the State Water Project and federal Central Valley Project to pull water with their massive pumps from the south end of the Delta and send it to cities and farms across a wide area of central and Southern California. Science underpins decisions about water management and ecosystem protection. But the ecosystem challenges in the Delta itself are daunting – invasive aquatic species, more frequent toxic algal blooms, bare minimum stocks of native fish, warming air temperatures, sea-level rise that could imperil levees and seasonal precipitation that swings sharply from drought to flood and back to drought. The Delta is the source of drinking water for 29 million Californians from the San Francisco Bay Area to San Diego and irrigation for 3 million acres of farmland that help feed the nation. ~Report: Preparing for a Fast-forward Future in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta “The accelerating speed of change means that ecological systems may not hold still long enough for scientists to understand them, much less use their findings to inform management.” It’s damn difficult and it’s made worse by the fact that we are in this increasing volatility.” “It’s all changing so rapidly that our traditional approach to scientific inquiry is being outstripped by the pace of change. “This is a big issue,” said Jeff Mount, senior fellow with the Public Policy Institute of California. Rapid change adds another layer of complexity to that problem. For decades, stakeholders have wrangled about the best way to manage it for water supply reliability and ecosystem protection. Never static, the Delta is central to California’s water conveyance system. The rapid pace of upheaval demands a new way of conducting science and managing water in the troubled estuary. ![]() Lately, however, scientists say the rate of change has kicked into overdrive, fueled in part by climate change, and is limiting the ability of science and Delta water managers to keep up. Radically transformed from its ancient origin as a vast tidal-influenced freshwater marsh, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta ecosystem is in constant flux, influenced by factors within the estuary itself and the massive watersheds that drain through it into the Pacific Ocean.
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